Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending March 6, 2026
Market developments
Equities: Global equity markets experienced sharp declines this week as the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran triggered widespread selling across major indices. European stocks headed for their worst week since early April 2025, with the Stoxx 600 falling over 5%, breaking a five-week winning streak. Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, the FTSE 100 dropped ~2%, while Japan's Nikkei fell ~3% and South Korea's Kospi lost ~7% as investors reconsidered the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. The selling pressure was broad-based, with few sectors offering shelter, even energy stocks eventually succumbed to the wider market decline despite rising oil prices.
Fixed Income: Treasury markets posted their biggest weekly loss since last spring as surging oil prices fueled inflation concerns, with 10-year yields rising as much as 22 basis points over the week. Bond yields initially fell early in the week in a flight to safety sparked by the Middle East conflict but quickly reversed as inflation worries took precedence. The 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4% as concerns mounted that attacks on Iran could spur a lasting increase in energy prices.
Commodities: Oil markets experienced dramatic gains as the Iran conflict effectively shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows. U.S. crude prices rallied from just under $73 a week ago to top $90, setting a record weekly gain of more than 30%. Gold, by contrast, failed to capture much of a haven bid this week despite the geopolitical turmoil, heading for its worst week since January.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
33,083.72 |
-3.66% |
1.89% |
5.66% |
4.33% |
S&P 500 |
6,740.02 |
-2.02% |
-2.77% |
-1.90% |
-1.54% |
NASDAQ |
22,387.68 |
-1.24% |
-2.79% |
-5.05% |
-3.68% |
DAX |
23,591.03 |
-6.70% |
-4.57% |
-1.82% |
-3.67% |
NIKKEI 225 |
55,620.84 |
-5.49% |
2.52% |
10.16% |
10.49% |
Shanghai Composite |
4,124.19 |
-0.93% |
1.44% |
5.67% |
3.91% |
Fixed Income |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
243.27 |
-1.23% |
0.24% |
1.50% |
0.97% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2369.40 |
-0.86% |
0.48% |
1.22% |
0.87% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
247.78 |
-1.50% |
-0.33% |
0.37% |
0.40% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.32 |
-0.09% |
-0.02% |
1.05% |
0.60% |
Commodities |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
90.89 |
35.62% |
43.02% |
51.28% |
58.29% |
Gold |
5169.99 |
-2.06% |
4.14% |
23.16% |
19.69% |
Copper |
579.20 |
-3.54% |
-1.53% |
7.62% |
1.94% |
Currencies |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
98.88 |
1.30% |
1.28% |
-0.11% |
0.57% |
Bitcoin (CAD) |
92,627.41 |
2.89% |
-4.13% |
-25.16% |
-22.79% |
Loonie |
1.3569 |
0.52% |
0.78% |
1.83% |
1.14% |
Euro |
0.8608 |
-1.65% |
-1.67% |
-0.22% |
-1.09% |
Yen |
157.83 |
-1.13% |
-0.39% |
-1.58% |
-0.71% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of March 06, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
June 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.27% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
3.75% |
3.51% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
2.12% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
3.63% |
Bank of Japan |
0.75% |
0.95% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of March 06, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – Manufacturing Activity Returns to Expansion
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.0 in February 2026, up from 50.4 in January and marking the highest level since January 2025. New orders returned to growth for the first time in recent months, despite a backdrop of softening export sales and ongoing challenges arising from United States tariffs. Employment also increased, representing the second consecutive month of expansion.
U.S. – Producer Prices Accelerate More Than Expected, Nonfarm Payrolls Post Surprise Decline in February
The ISM Prices Paid Index jumped 11.5 points to 70.5 in February 2026, the highest level since overall inflation peaked nearly four years ago. The reading significantly exceeded the survey estimate of 59.20 and the prior reading of 59.0. The figures reflected responses ahead of US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran over the weekend.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February 2026, one of the largest declines since the pandemic, after a downwardly revised gain of 126,000 in January. The consensus was for a 60,000 increase. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% from 4.3%, above the survey estimate of 4.3%. The decline partly reflected a decrease in healthcare employment due to a strike and an impact from unusually harsh winter weather, though the weakness was broad-based. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 12,000.
International – Eurozone Inflation Unexpectedly Accelerates to 1.9%, China Official Manufacturing PMI Contracts More Than Expected, Eurozone Unemployment Rate Falls to Record Low
The Eurozone CPI year-over-year preliminary estimate for February 2026 rose to 1.9%, up from 1.7% in January and exceeding the survey estimate of 1.7%. The increase was mainly due to a rise in service sector inflation, which hit 3.4% from 3.2% the prior month.
China's official Manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.0 in February 2026, down from 49.3 in January and below the median estimate of 49.05. All sub-indices were below 50, with production falling to 49.6, new orders down to 48.6 and employment dropping to 48.0. The longest-ever Lunar New Year holiday brought a lull in manufacturing and construction.
The Eurozone unemployment rate declined to 6.1% in January 2026, down from 6.2% in December and below the survey estimate of 6.2%. The reading marked a new record low for the currency bloc.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
02-Mar-26 |
Canada |
S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI |
Feb |
|
50.4 |
02-Mar-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI |
Feb F |
|
51.2 |
02-Mar-26 |
United States |
ISM Manufacturing |
Feb |
51.80 |
52.6 |
02-Mar-26 |
United States |
ISM Prices Paid |
Feb |
59.20 |
59 |
03-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Estimate YoY |
Feb P |
1.70 |
1.7 |
03-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI YoY |
Feb P |
1.70 |
1.7 |
03-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI MoM |
Feb P |
0.50 |
-0.6 |
03-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
CPI Core YoY |
Feb P |
2.20 |
2.2 |
03-Mar-26 |
China |
Manufacturing PMI |
Feb |
49.05 |
49.3 |
03-Mar-26 |
China |
Non-manufacturing PMI |
Feb |
49.70 |
49.4 |
03-Mar-26 |
China |
Composite PMI |
Feb |
|
49.8 |
04-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Unemployment Rate |
Jan |
6.20 |
6.2 |
05-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
Retail Sales MoM |
Jan |
0.20 |
-0.5 |
06-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA QoQ |
4Q T |
0.30 |
0.3 |
06-Mar-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
GDP SA YoY |
4Q T |
1.30 |
1.3 |
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Advance MoM |
Jan |
-0.30 |
|
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Jan |
|
|
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas |
Jan |
|
|
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls |
Feb |
60.00 |
130 |
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Change in Private Payrolls |
Feb |
70.00 |
172 |
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls |
Feb |
|
5 |
06-Mar-26 |
United States |
Unemployment Rate |
Feb |
4.30 |
4.3 |
F = Final
P = Preliminary
T = Third
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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