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Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending April 25, 2025

Market developments

Equities: Global equity markets experienced volatility this week, driven by U.S. economic policy concerns, particularly around trade tariffs and Federal Reserve independence. U.S. stocks rebounded mid-week after a sharp selloff on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining as technology shares led the recovery, though investor sentiment remained cautious due to tariff uncertainties. European equity funds saw significant inflows as investors shifted capital away from U.S. markets, while leveraged equity ETFs gained popularity as some bet on a market recovery.

Fixed Income: U.S. bond funds faced selling pressure amid fears of tariff-driven inflation, leading to a fifth consecutive week of outflows, with investors favouring short-term government bond funds for safety. Rising U.S. Treasury yields earlier in the week reflected market unease, though a pause in aggressive tariff rhetoric helped stabilize bond markets slightly. In Europe, bond markets held steady, supported by the European Central Bank's recent rate cuts, which bolstered fixed-income investor confidence.

Commodities: Oil prices remained relatively stable, with investors monitoring U.S. and China trade developments for potential demand impacts, though no significant disruptions were reported. Bitcoin also surged, reclaiming $90,000, fueled by positive crypto market sentiment and new SEC leadership. Other commodities like industrial metals faced muted demand due to global growth concerns.

 

Performance (price return)

SECURITY

PRICE

WEEK

1 MONTH

3 MONTH

YTD

Equities ($Local)

 

 

 

 

 

S&P/TSX Composite

24,710.51

2.14%

-2.48%

-2.98%

-0.07%

S&P 500

5,525.21

4.59%

-4.35%

-9.44%

-6.06%

NASDAQ

17,382.94

6.73%

-4.86%

-12.89%

-9.98%

DAX

22,242.45

4.89%

-3.75%

3.96%

11.72%

NIKKEI 225

35,705.74

2.81%

-5.49%

-10.58%

-10.50%

Shanghai Composite

3,295.06

0.56%

-2.22%

1.30%

-1.69%

Fixed Income (Performance in %)

 

 

 

 

 

Canada Aggregate Bond

236.39

-0.36%

-0.84%

0.73%

0.43%

US Aggregate Bond

2240.01

0.35%

0.05%

2.24%

2.33%

Europe Aggregate Bond

245.44

0.18%

1.92%

1.53%

0.69%

US High Yield Bond

27.05

1.00%

-0.93%

-0.34%

0.82%

Commodities ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

Oil

63.25

-2.21%

-8.33%

-15.28%

-11.81%

Gold

3308.39

-0.55%

9.55%

19.41%

26.06%

Copper

484.45

2.23%

-6.53%

12.12%

20.32%

Currencies ($USD)

 

 

 

 

 

US Dollar Index

99.60

0.37%

-4.40%

-7.30%

-8.19%

Loonie

1.3859

-0.09%

3.03%

3.48%

3.79%

Euro

0.8803

-0.30%

5.27%

8.22%

9.72%

Yen

143.69

-1.05%

4.33%

8.57%

9.40%

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 25, 2025

 

Central Bank Interest Rates

Central Bank

Current Rate

June 2025
Expected Rate*

December 2025
Expected Rate*

Bank of Canada

2.75%

2.63%

2.28%

U.S. Federal Reserve

4.50%

4.16%

3.45%

European Central Bank

2.25%

1.92%

1.52%

Bank of England

4.50%

4.07%

3.56%

Bank of Japan

0.50%

0.52%

0.66%

Source: Bloomberg, as of April 25, 2025

*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing

 

Macro developments

Canada – Canadian Retail Sales Rebound

Retail sales in Canada are estimated to have increased by 0.7% in March, recovering from a 0.4% drop in February. Declines were notable in motor vehicle and parts dealers, while food and beverage retailers saw significant gains. Core retail sales rose by 0.5%, with regional variations showing Manitoba leading growth and Nova Scotia and Quebec facing declines.

U.S. – U.S. Private Sector Growth Slows

The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI dropped to 51.2 in April, indicating the slowest private sector growth in 16 months. Services activity weakened, manufacturing slightly improved and business expectations hit a post-pandemic low. Prices for goods and services rose sharply, driven by tariff-related increases in manufactured goods.

International – U.K. Economic Activity Contracts, Retail Sales Defy Expectations in the U.K., Eurozone Private Sector Stagnates, Japan’s Business Activity Rebounds, China Maintains Steady Rates

U.K. retail sales grew by 0.4% in March, surpassing forecasts of a decline. This surge was driven by a 1.7% rise in non-food store sales, particularly in clothing and second-hand goods. Food store sales fell by 1.3%. Annual retail sales increased by 2.6%, with the first quarter showing the strongest growth since July 2021.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI dipped to 50.1 in April, reflecting stable but weak private sector activity. Services activity contracted, manufacturing remained weak and new orders fell for the eleventh month. Employment stagnated, input costs eased and business confidence hit a two-year low amid global trade uncertainties.

The au Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in April, driven by a service sector recovery and a slight easing in manufacturing decline. New orders and employment grew, but foreign sales dropped. Input costs hit a two-year high, and business confidence fell to its lowest since August 2020 due to global and domestic challenges.

In April 2025, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, as it monitors U.S. trade disputes. This follows strong Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, supported by stimulus measures, including CNY 300 billion in treasury bonds for consumer goods programs.

Quick look ahead

DATE

COUNTRY / REGION

EVENT

 

SURVEY

PRIOR

29-Apr-25

Japan

Retail Sales YoY

Mar

3.6

1.4

29-Apr-25

China

Manufacturing PMI

Apr

49.8

50.5

29-Apr-25

China

Non-manufacturing PMI

Apr

50.7

50.8

29-Apr-25

China

Caixin China PMI Mfg

Apr

49.8

51.2

30-Apr-25

Eurozone Aggregate

GDP SA YoY

1Q A

1.1

1.2

30-Apr-25

Eurozone Aggregate

GDP SA QoQ

1Q A

0.2

0.2

30-Apr-25

United States

GDP Annualized QoQ

1Q A

0.3

2.4

30-Apr-25

Canada

GDP MoM

Feb

 

0.4

30-Apr-25

Canada

GDP YoY

Feb

 

2.2

30-Apr-25

United States

PCE Price Index YoY

Mar

2.2

2.5

30-Apr-25

United States

Core PCE Price Index YoY

Mar

2.6

2.8

01-May-25

Japan

BOJ Target Rate

 

0.5

0.5

01-May-25

Canada

S&P Canada Manufacturing PMI

Apr

 

46.3

01-May-25

United States

ISM Manufacturing

Apr

48.0

49.0

01-May-25

Japan

Jobless Rate

Mar

2.4

2.4

02-May-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Estimate YoY

Apr P

2.1

2.2

02-May-25

Eurozone Aggregate

CPI Core YoY

Apr P

2.5

2.4

02-May-25

Eurozone Aggregate

Unemployment Rate

Mar

6.1

6.1

02-May-25

United States

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Apr

125.0

228.0

02-May-25

United States

Unemployment Rate

Apr

4.2

4.2

A = Advance

P = Preliminary

 

The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments

Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolios

Mateo Marks, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

Adam Ludwick, CFA – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Multi Asset Portfolio Analyst

Aviso Wealth Inc. ('Aviso') is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth LP, which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holding Inc. and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five Provincial Credit Union Centrals and The CUMIS Group Limited. The following entities are subsidiaries of Aviso: Aviso Financial Inc. (including divisions Aviso Wealth, Qtrade Direct Investing, Qtrade Guided Portfolios, Aviso Correspondent Partners), Aviso Insurance Inc., Credential Insurance Services Inc. and Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.  Mutual funds and other securities are offered through Aviso Wealth, a division of Aviso Financial Inc. Aviso and Aviso Wealth are registered trademarks of Aviso Wealth Inc. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of Northwest & Ethical Investments L.P.

This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters. This document is published Aviso Wealth and unless indicated otherwise, all views expressed in this document are those of Aviso Wealth. The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time.